Between 1998 and 2005, daily ridership fell on the #39 bus by 17% from 17,400 to 14,400. (Gazette, Aug. 12) Viewed in context, this is a significant loss that argues strongly for restoring one-seat Arborway Green Line service to Park Street.

First, the loss of ridership was projected in the T’s 1987 Arborway Study. That extensive study stated clearly that if Green Line service was not restored, transit ridership in the Arborway corridor would fall. The study also stated just as clearly that ridership would increase if Green Line service was restored. The loss of ridership was, therefore, predicted and relates directly to the MBTA’s failure to restore Green Line service to Park Street.

Second, the 17% loss of ridership is not the first time that the #39 has lost riders. The MBTA’s 1996 ridership survey showed #39 ridership at 19,057. The MBTA’s 1988 ridership survey showed #39 ridership at 28,000. In a word, since 1988 and the suspension of Green Line service, the #39 bus has lost a staggering 13,600 riders per day. In contradistinction to the bus’s poor record, streetcar service in the 1980s retained ridership.

Third, the phenomenon of ridership loss resulting from a transit line conversion from streetcar to bus is not unique to Boston. It is an occurrence that has been played out across America. There is not one documented example of a streetcar line conversion to bus operations that has resulted in anything but a loss in transit ridership.

Fourth, while the #39 has been discarding riders, ridership on the bus system generally has increased. As announced by the T last month, overall bus ridership has actually increased by about 3%.

So here is the context of the irretrievable decline in #39 ridership. It was predicted by the 1987 Arborway study, it has been accelerating since the suspension of Arborway Green Line service, it is consistent with the experience of other cities that convert streetcar service to bus, and it is contrary to ridership trends in the MBTA bus system overall.

In the Gazette article, the MBTA and its apologists offered the same old reheated pabulum as reasons for the loss.  Yet, ridership is not down because of fare increases, otherwise ridership would be down on the entire bus system, and it is not. Ridership is not down because of lower average household sizes; total population in JP has actually increased at a rate significantly higher than the rest of the city. Ridership is not down because people are taking the Orange Line; as reported, Orange Line ridership has remained steady at about 23,000 in JP.

Finally, compounding the problem facing JP by falling bus ridership, the MBTA’s Alan Cataline suggested to the Gazette that with a fall in ridership, #39 service in the 2006 Service Plan might be “scale[d] back a bit.” That means even poorer service, which means even fewer riders, etc, etc.

There is no better transit without trolleys. There’s only more of the same.

Franklin P. Salimbene
Chair, Arborway Committee