Letter to the Conservation Law Foundation detailing ridership estimate inaccuracies

Srdjan Nedeljkovic, MD
Member, Arborway Rail Restoration Project Advisory Committee

26 May 2005

Carrie Schneider, Staff Attorney
Phil Warburg, President

Dear Ms. Schneider and Mr. Warburg,

Based on our meeting that took place this afternoon, I am
providing (and have attached) a bullet list of problems and
flaws of the CTPS study on Arborway. 

I had also left, with Ms. Schneider, a copy of the CTPS
study, the Arborway committee's detailed criticisms of the
study, and a letter by Professor Vukan Vuchic critical of
the study methodology.  You may find the CTPS study, flawed
as it is, useful to review, as it has not been made widely
available to the public.

It is important that the public and other interested
parties are aware of the gross biases and inaccurate inputs
that were used in the CTPS study to persuade against
Arborway restoration.  For those who are aware only of the
conclusions of the study, that ridership on Arborway would
increase such that only 600 trips would be diverted from
cars to transit, it will be important for them to realize
that these figures are grossly underestimated.

Based on my knowledge of the study parameters and of the
results that occured when rail based systems were
implemented in other cities, I believe that ridership on
Arborway will actually increase by 6000 with rail
restoration, which is 10x greater than the CTPS predicts.
 In other words, transit utilization will increase from
31,000 to 37,000 in the corridor, a figure which is
actually about 10,000 riders less than the old Arborway
streetcars transported before streetcar service was
"temporarily" suspended. 

Based on these figures, the cost effectiveness of the
project, and its impacts on urban mobility and air quality,
would be proportionately improved.  For anyone who asks me
how much the actual ridership increase on Arborway would
be, I would feel confident in the 6000 number.  This
increase in ridership will make the per person capital
costs, as well as the operating costs of the restored
service, close to ten-fold lower, justifying this project
in the eyes of many.

It's a shame that most people who attended the MassInc
forum this morning are likely unaware of the substance of
the CTPS study and its apparent flaws.

I would be happy to discuss these issues further at any
time.

Best regards,

Srdjan S. Nedeljkovic, M.D.
Arborway Rail Restoration Project Advisory Committee